A dramatic and rapidly shifting Democratic primary in New Jersey’s 11th Congressional District remains officially too close to call, as progressive organizer Analilia Mejia surged late to take a narrow lead over former congressman Tom Malinowski in a race triggered by Governor Mikie Sherrill’s departure from Congress.
As of Thursday morning, with roughly 91 percent of the vote reported, Mejia holds a slim advantage of 28.7 percent to Malinowski’s 28.0 percent, according to results carried by the Associated Press. With provisional ballots still outstanding and party officials signaling those ballots may lean toward Mejia, the contest is increasingly expected to move toward a recount.
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Just hours earlier, the race appeared to be breaking decisively in Malinowski’s favor. An initial wave of early vote and vote-by-mail results placed the former congressman on top, leading some observers to believe he had successfully engineered a political comeback in one of the most closely watched special primaries in the state this cycle.
That narrative unraveled quickly as Election Day totals were added and Mejia’s late-breaking grassroots operation delivered a sharp reversal.
The seat became vacant after Sherrill won the 2025 gubernatorial election, setting off a crowded special primary field of eleven candidates and setting the stage for an unusually volatile contest. The winner will face Republican nominee Joe Hathaway, who advanced unopposed in the GOP primary, in an April special general election.
Malinowski entered the race with formidable advantages: statewide and national name recognition, significant fundraising capacity, and the institutional memory of having flipped a Republican-held district in 2018. In a low-turnout special election environment, those assets initially appeared decisive. Early tallies showed Malinowski performing strongly in vote-by-mail returns and establishing a cushion that briefly suggested he would either win outright or finish in a narrow first-place position in key counties, including Essex.
That cushion, however, collapsed as Mejia’s Election Day support materialized.
By the end of the night, Mejia overtook Malinowski in Essex County, a development that stunned establishment operatives who had long viewed the race as a two-way contest between Malinowski and Essex County Commissioner Brendan Gill. Mejia’s late momentum effectively reshaped the race and exposed a deep appetite among Democratic primary voters for a more confrontational and progressive message.
Mejia, a longtime labor and political organizer and former political director for SEIU 32BJ and Working Families, built a campaign that leaned heavily on door-to-door organizing, small-donor fundraising and issue-driven mobilization. Her candidacy steadily gained traction in the final weeks, cutting through what had initially been a crowded field dominated by higher-profile contenders.
Party insiders privately described Mejia’s surge as one of the most disruptive late-stage developments in a North Jersey primary in recent memory.
Patrick Murray, a New Jersey pollster who has closely tracked Democratic voter behavior in the region, said the near-tie outcome underscores how sharply the party electorate has shifted.
“When you look at Mejia and Malinowski together pulling close to 60 percent of the vote, that tells you a lot about what Democratic voters are looking for right now,” Murray said. He noted that turnout in a February special primary is typically lower and more ideologically engaged than a June primary electorate, amplifying the influence of highly motivated progressive voters. “This is very much a Democratic electorate that wants to take the fight directly to Donald Trump.”
For Malinowski, the race was widely viewed as a bid for political redemption after a turbulent recent history.
Once considered a rising Democratic figure after winning a traditionally Republican district in 2018, Malinowski became one of the most visible casualties of New Jersey’s congressional redistricting. The reconfigured map stripped away key Democratic municipalities from his former district and left him politically exposed. He subsequently lost his seat in 2022 to Republican Tom Kean Jr.
Complicating his return was lingering criticism surrounding his stock trading activity while in office, an issue that resurfaced during the campaign and fueled negative advertising in the closing stretch. While Malinowski attempted to reintroduce himself as a progressive voice and emphasized his national security credentials from his time in the Obama administration, outside spending and aggressive mail and television campaigns made the final weeks of the race unusually contentious.
Even so, Malinowski appeared poised for victory earlier in the evening, especially as he ran well in early returns across multiple municipalities. That advantage ultimately proved fragile in the face of Mejia’s late ground surge.
The ripple effects of the contest extended well beyond the top two candidates.
In Essex County, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, an outspoken supporter of Mejia, once again demonstrated his political strength, carrying the countywide vote for a second consecutive high-profile Democratic primary following his performance in last year’s gubernatorial contest. His organizational backing and visibility in urban turnout operations were widely credited by party observers as a meaningful factor in Mejia’s late-night climb.
The results were also a setback for the Essex County Democratic Committee, which had lined up behind Gill. Gill, long viewed as a formidable establishment contender with deep institutional support, failed to break through as the race polarized between Malinowski’s comeback bid and Mejia’s insurgent campaign.
Another notable late development came from Tahesha Way, the former lieutenant governor, who surged past Gill in late reporting. Her performance sparked immediate discussion among party activists about her potential future in state legislative politics, with quiet conversations already turning toward a possible run in the 40th Legislative District.
National political organizations also watched the race closely. Heavy outside spending aimed at bolstering Malinowski’s candidacy did not translate into a decisive victory, and the effectiveness of that spending is now being reassessed by Democratic strategists looking ahead to the April general election.
With provisional ballots still to be counted and the margin separating the top two candidates well under one percentage point, election officials and party leaders say the outcome may not be finalized for several days. A recount appears increasingly likely, particularly if the remaining ballots narrow the gap even further.
For now, the only certainty in New Jersey’s 11th District is that what began as a presumed establishment-friendly special election has turned into a defining test of the Democratic Party’s ideological direction heading into a volatile national election year.
Whether Mejia’s late grassroots surge ultimately delivers a historic upset or Malinowski manages to reclaim a narrow victory, the race has already sent a clear signal across North Jersey: Democratic voters are energized, deeply polarized over the party’s future, and prepared to reshape the political landscape in one of the state’s most competitive congressional districts.
